On the eve of Election Day 2016, new research compiled by GVPT Graduate Student Jared McDonald, a CAPC affiliate, finds that the splintering of the Republican party have stifled Republican enthusiasm for the GOP Presidential nominee.
Using recent data from the newly released University of Maryland Critical Issues Poll, McDonald found that while both weak and strong Democratic partisans are united in their support of Hillary Clinton, Republicans are much more divided in their support. Clinton outperformed Trump 87.73%-72.55% when the focus was on weak and strong copartisans.
McDonald then simulated poll results assuming that party unity was equal among Democrats and Republicans, which had Clinton with a 4.7% lead versus a 9.3% gap with the actual sample. This indicates that Trump needs to win both his own base and have a strong showing among independents, which as McDonald says, is a major hurdle heading into the final days of the election.
McDonald's report can be found in full here.
The Critical Issues Poll is a joint venture between the Center for American Politics and Citizenship, the Sadat Chair for Peace and Development, and Nielsen Scarborough.