WBAL90 news radio mentions poll
October 10, 2018
By: Tyler Waldman
Yet another poll is showing Gov. Larry Hogan with a double-digit lead over challenger Ben Jealous in the November general election.
The Gonzales Research poll out Wednesday asked who voters would pull the lever for if the election were held today. Fifty-four percent said they would vote for the Republican Hogan, with 36 percent supporting the Democrat Jealous. An August Gonzales poll had a 16-point gap between the two.
Two percent said they would vote for Libertarian Shawn Quinn or Green Ian Schlakman, while another 8 percent were undecided.
"Gov. Larry Hogan has maintained an incredibly high level of popularity and satisfaction with the job he's doing in office," pollster Patrick Gonzales said.
Most voters will head to the poll on Nov. 6. Early voting starts Oct. 25.
"We're a month out from election day, we're 10 days out from the start of early voting, so of course, things can change," Gonzales said. "But up to this point, nothing fundamentally has changed driving the dynamic of this election."
Hogan has the support of 91 percent of Democrats and 25 percent of Republicans. The poll finds Hogan leading handily in Anne Arundel, Baltimore and Harford Counties, on the eastern shore and in southern and western Maryland. The two are even in deep-blue Montgomery County, while Jealous leads Hogan in Prince George's County and Baltimore City.
A Washington Post-University of Maryland poll released Tuesday found Hogan leading by a 20-point margin, with just 5 percent undecided. It also found that about one-third of voters had no opinion on Jealous, and that Hogan held a slightly higher favorability rating among Democrats than the Democrat running against him.
The Gonzales poll finds that 72 percent of Maryland voters (including 67 percent of Democrats) approve of the job Hogan is doing as governor, while 18 percent disapprove. It found that 36 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Jealous, while 9 percent don't recognize his name.
Down the ballot, the poll found Attorney General Brian Frosh losing some support, but retaining a plurality over Republican challenger Craig Wolf, 43 percent to 34 percent, with the remainder undecided.
President Donald Trump isn't on the ballot in November, but could be a factor in turnout. Statewide, 39 percent said they have a favorable opinion of the president, while 53 percent have an unfavorable view of him. Forty-one percent of Maryland voters approve of the job Trump is doing, while 55 percent disapprove.
However, nearly two-thirds said they're in favor of the new trade deal Trump brokered with Mexico and Canada to replace NAFTA.
The poll surveyed 806 registered voters in live interviews conducted via both landline and cell phone from Oct. 1 through 6. The results have a 3.5 percent margin of error.